3 reasons the market was up today.

hipster versus homeless stock market rallyIf you are wondering what was the leading cause of today’s rally, it might be one of 3 things. First, it could be Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s confirmation that he doesn’t care about the very poor and is focused on the super rich, which is generally considered bullish for the markets.  A second item could be the successful conclusion of the Greek Debt Crisis.  Or finally, it could be the market rallying on the anticipation of the (enter team name here) winning the superbowl. There is a very strong correlation with this (enter team name here) and stock market performance.   The market is also clearly telling the American public that it is time to get back into stocks or they might miss out on the 40% rally that lies ahead! I can’t guarantee the following, but I suspect this rally will probably kick off with the launch of the Facebook IPO, don’t worry it’s different this time.

Hashtags:

#pic: Unrelated. I have to do something to get your attention. Irrational exuberance or fear tactics get old after a while.  (plus people keep downloading my pictures, so it must be working)

#Just to easy: The following was on CNBC’s webpage: Cramer: Facebook Should Offer IPO to Users . I’m not even going to link to the video. I am just going to leave it without comment.  It’s just to easy.

#Payday loans: Need urgent access to the discount window or a $1 trillion overnight loan at 0.001% interest? Call 877-52-FRBNY. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) via Zerohedge tweet

#Golden cross:  Funny how we just had a Death cross about 4 months ago. Just remember, past preformance is not an indication of future performance, Taken directly from my Janus mutual fund prospectus.  They weren’t kidding either.

#I’m having a superbowl party: Please maintain strict adherence to my rules. (funny)

#Below are the winners and losers for January.  You can see where I stand on any of the 641 stocks here.

 

When stocks reach the moon, it’s time to stop buying.

newt gingrich moon stock market rocket Well… Newt Gingrich wanted a moon colony, I just didn’t think that the stock market would get there first. Down 100 points in the morning, rally to end the day flat.  Makes sense?

#(facebook + twitter + myspace)  = my-twit-face:  The movie was great. (David Fincher is a great director: Seven, Fight Club) Unfortunately I don’t see this a great investment,  Jim Rogers doesn’t either. On the contrary, Jim Cramer doesn’t want to “BUY, BUY, BUY” so that might be a contrary indicator. All I can say is that unless you have a co-located connection to the exchange and a super fast computer, I wouldn’t bother.  Yes, I know everybody uses facebook and you saw the movie. But consider 2 key issues to take into account. 1. Don’t forget private shareholders and secondary share holders will be dumping this stock to take profits.   (off the top of my head they have been holding shares for two years now…) 2. The twitter search frequency sentiment engines are already salivating at this IPO. I know my twitter search algorithm has already been tracking the symbol $FB. So if you want to short or go long, don’t worry the high frequency algorithms will be happy to front-run your trades.

#financial advisor: Email me if you are interested in recreating the Hardline & Quatro Kinectic porfolios for your clients.

#What the Republicans can’t seem to understand: The GOP Deserves to Lose: That’s what happens when you run with losers.  Think  of it more as a different perspective.

#House in Davos: Henry Blodget of business insider fame, was lucky enough to get an interview with Robert Schiller in Davos, the creator of the Case-Shiller 20-city Index of home prices. (Released tomorrow at 9:00 am)

#Greece: We are currently between stages 3 and 4 in the five part Greece flowchart.

#Developing: Will be submitting an application to the marketplace on stocktwits.

#back by popular demand & laughs:  Okay, I guess you could call this the honey badger market. (This might be the most profound statement on the blog today.)

#641: I track over 641 stocks, you can see where I stand on any position here.

 

 

 

Back to the Honey Badger market.

No QE 3, no problem.  Uncle Ben isn’t going to print any money, but he is going to screw savers until at least 2014.  Markets rejoice!  It’s Honey Badger time! credit crunch cereal bernake federal resereve fomc(I was shocked by the analytics, there are people out there that don’t know about the Honey Badger.)

#Lottery tickets:   Congratulations to Netflix shareholders! Let us never forget the difference between a trade and an investment.

#FED goes Mainstream: It might be concerning when the FED’s announcement find on the front page of my.yahoo page. Insight: Today it pays to owe money, while U.S. savers suffer.

#FOMC vs. Twitter: This person echos my thoughts exactly.

#Dotcom valuations: This blogger does a great job of trying to make sense of  market valuations.

#trending: Yesterday’s post about top 10 best and worst stock went over well.  I will be publishing that on a daily basis. But in the mean time just take yesterday numbers and multiply by another 10% to get the most current results.

#robots:  I have received a lot of inquires as of late about my algorithmic trading system and if I can customize it for individual traders. Please email me if you would like more information. 

 

 

Proceed with caution, the CNBC indictator is broken.

It’s true, the correlation has been broken.  I was testing a theory, that if there was pornography articles on the CNBC website, then the market would go up! Unfortunatley, based on my mathematical analysis, the correlation was broken today. There was an adult entertainment slide show  on the front page of CNBC and the market went down. Time to adjust strategy.

#Apple: Congratulations, Apple Inc. It’s amazing what an American company can do with out bailouts or corrupting the political system. If Apple continues to grow at 20% each quarter, extrapolating into the future, means that the company will hit $1 trillion in cash by Q1 2015.

#Greece?:  Explains how the Euro Process works, in 5 steps.

#Public service announcement: The post office is missing some tax payer equipment, please help.

#twitter: You can follow me here. At this point I don’t tweet that much so you won’t have to list me, because I am to busy following other people’s tweets.

#liars: The other day someone said I was a liar, that I couldn’t track 600 stocks and only Goldman Sach could do that. So below you can a find 10 of the best and worst stocks of 2012. Don’t worry, I bought all of the best stocks and sold short the worst. (oh, now I’m lying) Click on the link to see where the algorithm started tracking the stock.

 

CNBC indicator is at an all time high!

CBNC Porn markets front page
CNBC front page 1-19-2012

Oh, boy! CNBC doesn’t even report the news anymore, they are terribly concerned about the Porn industry! Can you figure out which links they want you to click on?

This after yesterday’s indicator was at a high level as well! I don’t have the stats in front of me but generally speaking CNBC ratings go up when the market starts to tank. That’s why they have those “special” reports in the after hours to explain why the market is going down and you should be buying stocks.  Or maybe it was this time that Cramer saved the market from the flash crash. When the market goes up, nobody cares, so they have to rely on other tricks…

No setups today. But you can run your stock thru my database to see how I am tracking it, there just 600 or so with a buy signal on 80% of the stocks tracked.

 

Where will you be when Greece defaults?

Answer: Probably sleeping, if you are on the continental USA. Greece is a slow moving train wreck, but at some point it  has to come to an end, just don’t know when and how. And if there is one thing I learned in the Marines, boring market sleeping bears awake angrydon’t wake sleeping bears.

I know this might be obvious, but it is so easy to sell fear, just ask Glenn Beck. It is also so easy to sell hope, just ask Obama marketers of 2008. But I should really know this having spent a tour of duty in advertising many years ago. Why do you think I wrote an article about Tim Tebow and Bernanke..? Nobody cares about Bernanke, but Tebow that’s a whole another story. (Yes, I  am a Broncos fan, but at the same time, let’s give the 24 year old kid a break.  I mean really he doesn’t hurt anybody and he is not an egotistical thug. Kim Kardashian on the other hand was making sex tapes at 24 and for some reason the media still pays attention to her?)

Moving on to some notes of interest:

#High Frequency: If you are holding your stocks longer than 22 seconds, you are now considered a long term investor.

#Shameless: Front page of CNBC today: The Dirty Dozen 2012: Porn’s Most Popular Stars I guess it was a slow newsday at CNBC.  (I am probably just as guilty as CNBC for posting this!)

#European Crisis Debt Saga: 2 perspectives: 1 serious:  “The Smiling Faces of Ben Bernanke & Marc Faber.”. 2 funny and serious click here for a  3 minute video explaining the Euro crisis.

#earnings: S&P 500 Profit Season Has Worst Start in Years: Chart of the Day via Bloomberg. Yet the market is up 3.03%  YTD.

#get rich quick scheme: Bizarro Market Winning Strategies 101: Go Long The Most Hated Stocks via Zerohedge

#Beta testing: Still a work in progress but of the 600 stocks I track 77.14% are now signally a buy. Haven’t seen this level in a while and usually means we are around the top.

Here are 10 setups in 10 seconds… click the stock to see overall performance.

Who needs those rating agencies anyways, we have JP Morgan.

euro broken crisis Wow, the markets figured out Europe was broken and Mr. Dimon and his entourage of JP Morgan aren’t doing so well. This should be slightly concerning because Bankers do God’s work, not Tim Tebow. But the key issue is that JP Morgan is generally considered the best of the banks and if they are doing poorly well I wonder what the rest has in store for the market.

For the most part the market shrugged off the latest bad news and rallied at the end of the day. Europe rallied even as S&P downgraded the EFSF fund in Europe.  With that in mind,  Citibank reports Tuesday morning, Goldman Sachs on Wednesday morning, Bank of America on Thursday morning and General Electric on Friday morning.  Just a friendly reminder Bank of America is up roughly 14% since the beginning of the year and it is generally considered the worst of the banks. I think it might be fair to expect a little bit of volatility this week not only because of earnings, but also because it’s options expiration Friday.  Sure we can “spin” the European down grades as already baked into stocks, but it will be harder if earnings don’t meet expectations or as I like to say, even lowered expectations.

Anybody who followed my recent post about Rick Santorum,  it appears Bloomberg businessweek is also in agreement: How to Succeed As a Campaign Talking Head.

10 setups in 10 seconds… Notice they are all all short and most are coming from the XLY. (consumer discretionary)

 

 

 

Ben Bernanke Vs. Tim Tebow

tebowie tebowingI had a little time over the weekend to think  about market structure, capitalism, and the NFL. Unfortunately, I had this opportunity during the second half of the Broncos vs. the Patriots game. (Full disclosure: I am a Broncos fan and would like to thank them for an exciting season.)   As most should know by now the Broncos were defeated by a superior New England Patriots team.  Tom Brady and company were at the top of their game, the Broncos not so much. The “market place of football” determined a winner.

Some of the audience might be wondering how the author is going to link Bernanke to Tebow, others might have seen this as a weak attempt to tie into Tebowmania.  Bear with me…

The rest of the premium article can be found at on the Seeking Alpha website. (It part of the fine print…)

 

Heard on CNBC: “This market can only go higher!”

floating higher leviatoinHeard on CNBC:  “This market can only go higher” (until it doesn’t).

It appears the markets are levitating higher on the fantasy of QE 3. Don’t believe me, then just ask Bill Gross who is eagerly buying MBS.  The next FED meeting is Jan 25-26 and options expiration on the 20th. Unless JP Morgan botches earnings or it is discovered that Europe is bankrupt (or the US), I would suspect the robots will make the market go higher, especially if the S&P crosses the 1300 mark. (There is no significance in the 1300 number other than it’s an even number and is greater than 1299.) But everything is subject to change…

Continuing with my 10 “set ups” in 10 seconds series. (This is a little more reasonable than 600 set ups in 60 seconds) Here is the latest fresh off the number cracker.

I am only providing the entry point or the trade idea.  You do the rest. You can track my unaudited performance here.  If you don’t see your stock then click here.

The only trades which are tracked and verified are the trades in the Just the Numbers portfolio and you can see those by subscribing to the newsletter.